Khartoum: Recent advances made by the Sudanese army in the ongoing conflict with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have raised questions about the prospect of a possible end to the deadly war ravaging the country for over 18 months now. Nearly 25,000 people have been killed and over 10 million displaced since April 2023, when a battle for power erupted between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the RSF headed by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The fighting has spread to at least 13 of Sudan’s 18 states, leading to catastrophic destruction and pushing millions to the brink of famine and death.
According to Anadolu Agency, the situation on the battleground has changed significantly since late September, when the army launched a sweeping offensive to retake the capital, Khartoum, complete with airstrikes and a ground assault. The army has been able to recapture some key areas of Khartoum, which was largely controlled by the RSF since the war broke out, and Sudanese analysts s
uch as Jihad Mashamoun expect more progress in the coming period. The army has focused its efforts on Khartoum and other strategic cities along the River Nile, he explained, while delegating control of El Fasher to its allies from the Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements (JFASM), a coalition of various groups from the Darfur region.
Mashamoun highlighted that the army moved fast to take the city of Khartoum North, or Khartoum Bahri, along with control of the Halfaya bridge and the bridge to the city of Omdurman. From Omdurman, the army launched an offensive into central parts of Khartoum state, Mashamoun told Anadolu, adding that the military and the JFASM are also moving in Al Jazirah state ‘to capture Wad Madani and the rest of the region, but their progress there is slow.’ The army aimed to retake Khartoum because it represents ‘a moral victory’ and helps ‘in maintaining the legitimacy of the cause,’ he said.
The army’s recent gains are attributed to a switch in tactics from defensive to offensive. Th
is shift happened after the JFASM shed their neutrality in April this year and took a position against the RSF. Initially, the army was defensive, retreating from areas and allowing the RSF to expand, particularly since it did not have more than 30,000 to 37,000 soldiers and was focused more on replenishing its numbers and supplies, Mashamoun explained.
Despite the transformed military landscape, experts say that political dialogue and negotiations remain crucial for an end to the war. All major countries and institutions such as the UN have been pressing for concrete talks, especially as the humanitarian situation for millions of Sudanese keeps degrading by the day. Earlier this month, Trkiye reiterated its call for action to address ‘the humanitarian situation in Sudan and the attacks against civilians in Al Jazirah state in violation of humanitarian law.’ A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement emphasized the urgent need for a cease-fire ‘without further delay to restore peace and stability.’
Mashamoun note
d that the army wants negotiations based on the Jeddah Declaration signed in May 2023, which emphasized the protection of civilians among other things and called for the RSF ‘to withdraw from civilian institutions and homes.’ However, he pointed out that the RSF keeps violating the Jeddah Declaration, with its forces hiding in homes and in civilian institutions, and the lack of a monitoring mechanism to force compliance. He urged the international community ‘to stop treating the RSF on an equal footing’ with the Sudanese army, arguing that the latter has greater ‘institutional discipline compared to the RSF, making it more credible and accountable.’
Moses Chrispus Okello, a conflict analyst, questioned the scope of the current peace efforts. He believes the Jeddah Declaration was ‘well meaning’ but did not ‘have a good understanding of the nature of the conflict itself.’ Okello emphasized the importance of understanding the reasons behind the conflict and the visions of both parties for a post-conflict situa
tion. He also highlighted the renewed fighting in Khartoum and other areas of Darfur following the end of the rainy season and cautioned against expecting a quick return to the pre-war situation in Khartoum. Okello explained that the army’s efforts to clean out RSF presence from Khartoum present significant operational challenges, as the RSF is still ‘hiding inside homes or putting munitions inside civilian areas.’ The army is countering this issue by using drones for precise attacks that minimize casualties.