Colombians are preparing to head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new Congress and nominate candidates to run on the country’s upcoming presidential ballot.
This will also be the first time that 16 “seats for peace” in Congress will be allocated to members of communities that suffered due to the war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), while three presidential candidates will be selected in each of the three coalitions in the Latin American nation ahead of presidential elections on May 29.
The polls open for these historic elections at 8 a.m. local time (1300GMT) and close at 4 p.m., with more than 38 million Colombians eligible to vote.
In contrast to the current pro-government majority, the elections are expected to produce a significant shift to the left in the bicameral Congress made up of 108 senators and 188 representatives.
Andres Davila Ladron de Guevara, professor at the Faculty of Political Science and International Relations at Javeriana University in Colombia, thinks a change in political dispositions in Congress is likely.
Of the current senators, 48 did not stand for election, implying an “automatic renewal” of the Congress, De Guevara explained, adding that prospects for a political shift are also supported by expectations that the parties backing President Ivan Duque’s government, the Democratic Center party, La U party, and Radical Change party, will lose some seats.
“This could modify Congress somewhat,” he said in an interview with Anadolu Agency, adding that the left-wing Pacto Historico (Historical Pact) is expected to grow, with the most optimistic predictions being that it could gain up to 30 seats in the Senate.
“I don’t think they’ll exceed 12 or 13,” said the expert, however.
Further, the number of lawmakers from differing politically from the sitting government could also rise, said De Guevara, with the entry into Congress of the Historical Pact coalition, as well as those of Centro Esperanza (Center Hope), Alianza Verde (Green Alliance), and Nuevo Liberalismo (New Liberalism).
He argued that the fragmentation of Colombian politics into many parties “without a dominant one” will continue.
Presidential candidates
Sunday’s elections will also be the first time that there will be such consultations for the presidential candidates’ nomination, noted de Guevara.
While it remains unclear who will win, said the analyst, Senator Gustavo Petro, who is also the former mayor of the capital Bogota, is the front-runner in the Historical Pact.
The polls favor a landslide win for Petro on the left, while Sergio Fajardo, the former governor of the northwestern Antioquia department, and Federico Gutierrez the former mayor of Medellin city, are both forecast for slim victories.
“What is interesting is that they are coalitions that are not fully regulated and leave room to maneuver in later moves,” said de Guevara.
Seats for peace
Another aspect that makes these polls different from the earlier ones was that 16 victims of war, as representatives to the chamber for the same number of constituencies that were delimited in the peace agreement signed in 2016 with the FARC.
On the 16 “seats for peace,” the ONG Fundacion Ideas para la Paz (FIP), a Bogota-based think tank, warned in a report the election of their holders may not “escape risks such as abstention, mistrust, and cooptation by political machinery.”
The ONG cited the Colombian Electoral Observation Mission (EOM), saying that of the 167 municipalities that make up these 16 constituencies, 43 are at extreme risk of violence, while 44 are at high risk and 10 at medium risk.
On the risk of corruption, it said that some candidates are “relatives of traditional politicians, leaders of crop substitution programs, indigenous representatives, women with long-standing records of leadership, journalists, and people who have been reported to be linked to local administrations.”
Source: Anadolu Agency