KYIV: As the Russia-Ukraine war reaches the significant milestone of 1,000 days, the conflict has entered a perilous phase that raises the specter of nuclear escalation. Recent developments have intensified the situation, with both nations making strategic moves that could alter the course of the war.
According to Anadolu Agency, outgoing US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range missiles for strikes inside Russian territory, a decision Kyiv had long sought. This shift in US policy, yet to be officially confirmed by Washington, has prompted Moscow to revise its nuclear doctrine. One key change is Russia’s stance that an attack by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint assault.
The US has reportedly also approved the shipment of anti-personnel mines to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses. These actions come amidst reports that North Korean troops may be deployed to assist Russia, a claim first highlighted by South Korea and later supported by
Washington and NATO. While Russia and North Korea have neither confirmed nor denied these reports, the two nations have recently upgraded their bilateral ties, allowing mutual military aid in case of external aggression.
In the backdrop of these escalating tensions, the US elections on November 5 saw the Republican Party reclaim power, with Donald Trump returning to the White House. Trump’s return could significantly influence the conflict’s trajectory, potentially shifting it from nuclear confrontation to negotiation. Simon Schlegel, a senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group, suggests that Moscow is positioning the Ukraine conflict as a direct confrontation with the US, which could pave the way for direct talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The situation presents a complex landscape, with potential dialogues juxtaposed against the risks of further aggression. Moscow perceives recent US actions as escalatory but is expected to respond without resorting to nuclear threa
ts. Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles, while painful for Russia, is unlikely to decisively alter the war’s balance.
The involvement of North Korean troops, if confirmed, would mark a significant development. Jingdong Yuan of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute notes that this would be the first instance of an Asian country participating in a conflict since the Sino-Vietnamese border war of 1979. For North Korea, such involvement could strengthen ties with Russia while providing its troops with invaluable combat experience.
The broader implications of these developments could reignite Cold War tensions, potentially escalating into a global conflict. Leonid Petrov, an expert on North Korea, warns that the world is witnessing a shift from ideological blocs to a confrontation between dictatorships and democracies, with North Korea, China, and Russia forming one camp, and South Korea, Japan, and Ukraine the other.
China has remained silent on North Korea’s potential involvement, despite its
strong ties with both Russia and North Korea. Beijing-based analyst Einar Tangen suggests that North Korea’s growing alliance with Russia may be sidelining its relationship with China, as Pyongyang seeks to diversify its support base and assert its presence on the international stage.
These developments underscore the complexity and volatility of the current geopolitical landscape, as the world watches closely to see whether diplomatic efforts can prevail over the looming threat of further military escalation.