The first year of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine has revealed both the country’s weaknesses and strengths, according to Sergey Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies, a Moscow based think tank.
"The results of the first year of the 'special military operation' are very bad. They are even close to catastrophic. Instead of a 'special military operation,' it turned out to be a long, exhausting war," Markov, a former close adviser to President Vladimir Putin, told Anadolu in an interview.
Instead of taking under control the entire territory of Ukraine, or at least the part with dominating Russian population, Russia only captured some steppe regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which are far from being major economic centers, he said.
Besides, he added, a "terrible blow" in the form of Western sanctions was struck at the Russian economy, affecting the lives of millions of Russian citizens who can neither use international bank cards, nor visit a lot of countries anymore.
"It turns out that the combat activities hit in the first turn the most active, advanced part of society," the political scientist said.
Markov argued that the Ukrainian army proved to be strong, which reveals the failure of Russian intelligence, and inadequacy of the Russian decision-making system.
"If the Russian military leaders expected that part of the generals and the army of Ukraine would go over to her side, they made a mistake, none of this happened at all," he emphasized.
The operation provoked a sharp shift in public sentiment in Ukraine from sympathy to hatred for Russia, Markov said.
Positives
Among the "positive results" from a Russian perspective, the expert listed the attempt of the Russian leadership "to liquidate the anti-Russia project" built in Ukraine, increase of the Russian population by several million people, and resilience of the Russian economy.
"It is also a positive result that a large group of countries that are traditionally considered allies of the US refused to support the American policy of aggression against Russia, primarily the policy of sanctions, and have taken a neutral position -- Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE," he said.
Markov pointed out that Russian elites also showed unity, despite their different positions regarding the "special military operation," and no one went to the "enemy's side."
"Even people who left, for example, such as (Russian politician Anatoly) Chubais, did not make harsh statements. Although it can be assumed that people come to them and ask them to do it," he said.
According to him, no one in Russia wants a war but an overwhelming majority of the Russian people support the operation as something inevitable.
"The majority is against the war. At the same time, most consider this war unexpected. Russian rhetoric was harsh for many months before the operation, but it was not followed by any harsh actions. Therefore, for most it was a shock when it began," he stressed.
Russia's attitude-based groups
Markov classified Russians into different categories, sharing their attitudes towards the war.
“There is a 'Fighting Russia' group -- relatives of the servicemen, people living in border regions, patriotic people, who unequivocally support the war and provide feasible help, some 20% of the population.
"Expecting Russia, accounting for about 10% of Russians, is middle class, waiting for the end of the operation, trying to distance from what is happening as much as possible.
“Departed Russia, making up for some 5% does not support the war; these are people who either left or plan to leave for fear of being called to the army or that Russia will turn into an analogue of North Korea.
"Countryside Russia perceives the conflict as fate, it is useless to argue with fate, so they support the country's leadership, but at the same time deal with their own problems, they are not actively involved, they continue to live their lives," Markov said.
Possible outcomes, 'hybrid' participants of war
Speaking about possible outcomes, the expert said the war may turn into a protracted conflict that could last for 10 years or even more, and may end in the "Korean scenario" -- combat activities will stop without any peace agreements, and the sides will control the territories where they were at the moment when the fighting ends.
On the Western support to Kyiv, Markov said the US benefits from this war the most as it is "restoring" the unipolar world.
"The US and the EU, which are hybrid participants in this war, are in a very comfortable situation for themselves -- NATO, the West are consolidated, the US benefits from this war, restoring a unipolar world. Therefore, the West can continue military actions against Russia in this form for another 10 years," he said.
Markov said Russia would consider "a relative victory" by taking under control administrative centers of Russian-speaking regions in Ukraine, and signing agreements with the West on Ukraine's "demilitarization and denazification," essentially the withdrawal of heavy weapons.
"The regime remains anti-Russian but it can't be aggressive if it does not have heavy weapons, Ukraine will become a neutral country," the political scientist said.
"A big victory" for Russia would be taking under control all "Russian" cities, including Kyiv, Ukraine's territory shrinks to its Western part, which is being neutralized, demilitarized and denazified, this part without access to the Black Sea, loses its geopolitical significance, he continued.
In the case of "US victory," the first scenario suggests return of the Russian army to the position of Feb. 23, 2022, the second -- loss of all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, and the worst -- "catastrophic defeat" of Russia, when the war moves to its territory, the leadership is overthrown, a "puppet regime" is established, the country is divided into several states, and the US becomes the center of the world and claims global control.
ZChina stresses Russia-Ukraine direct talks, offers to play role in ending warCZC
China has made an offer to help find a political solution to the Russia-Ukraine war, which entered its second year on Friday, emphasizing that negotiation is the only viable option for ending the current crisis.
The Foreign Ministry issued a 12-point paper on the political settlement of the crisis on the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war.
According to a detailed statement published by the state-run CGTN, Beijing stated that all countries' sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity must be effectively maintained.
"All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community. Equal and uniform application of international law should be promoted, while double standards must be rejected," said the ministry.
China urged all parties involved in the conflict to resume peace talks, stating that negotiation is the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis.
"All efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be encouraged and supported," it said, urging the international community to stay committed to the right approach of promoting talks for peace, helping parties to the conflict, opening the door to a political settlement as soon as possible, and creating conditions and platforms for the resumption of negotiation.
"China will continue to play a constructive role in this regard," the ministry pledged.
Beijing also proposed that all parties support Russia and Ukraine in holding direct talks as soon as possible in order to reach a comprehensive ceasefire.
Oppose use of nuclear weapons
China opposed the threat or use of nuclear weapons, stating that nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.
"The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed. Nuclear proliferation must be prevented and the nuclear crisis avoided. China opposes the research, development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country under any circumstances," it said, adding that Beijing also opposed attacks on nuclear power plants and other peaceful nuclear facilities.
China also pledged to support the protection of civilians and the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine and urged all parties to create more favorable conditions for this purpose.
While not naming any countries, the statement criticized the “cold war mentality” and stated that a country's security should not be pursued at the expense of others.
"The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs," it said, adding that "all parties should oppose the pursuit of one's own security at the cost of others' security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent."
Facilitating grain exports
Beijing urged all parties to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed by Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the UN fully and effectively in a balanced manner, and support the UN in playing an important role in this regard.
To resolve the humanitarian crisis, China urged for all measures conducive to easing the humanitarian crisis and said such measures must be encouraged and supported.
"Humanitarian operations should follow the principles of neutrality and impartiality, and humanitarian issues should not be politicized. The safety of civilians must be effectively protected, and humanitarian corridors should be set up for the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones," the ministry stated, emphasizing the importance of the UN playing a coordinating role in channeling humanitarian aid to conflict zones.
Source: Anadolu Agency